Liver chemistries in severe or non-severe cases of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients exhibit different patterns of liver impairment, according to growing evidence. AIM: In this study, we sought to provide a comprehensive analysis of liver test parameters in patients with severe and non-severe COVID-19. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of published liver manifestations and described the liver damage in COVID-19. We searched PubMed, Google Scholar, Embase, Cochrane Library, medRxiv, bioRxiv, and three Chinese electronic databases through April 18, 2020, in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Meta-Analyses. We analyzed pooled data on liver chemistries stratified by COVID-19 severity using a fixed or random-effects model. RESULTS: A meta-analysis of 56 studies, including 11052 patients, found that the pooled mean alanine aminotransferase (ALT) in severe COVID-19 cases was 35.9 IU/L whereas in non-severe COVID-19 cases was 27.3 IU/L. Average aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels were 44.3 IU/L in severe cases compared to 27.9 IU/L in non-severe cases. In addition, AST levels are often higher than ALT levels regardless of disease severity. The severe cases tended to have a higher gamma-glutamyltransferase level but a lower albumin level than the non-severe cases. CONCLUSION: Severe COVID-19 was more likely to be associated with abnormal liver test results. Monitoring liver chemistry closely can help detect disease progression early.

Corticosteroid treatment in severe patients with SARS-CoV-2 and chronic HBV co-infection: a retrospective multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of corticosteroids on patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)/chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infection is currently unknown. We aimed to investigate the association of corticosteroids on these patients. METHODS: This retrospective multicenter study screened 5447 confirmed COVID-19 patients hospitalized between Jan 1, 2020 to Apr 18, 2020 in seven centers in China, where the prevalence of chronic HBV infection is moderate to high. Severe patients who had chronic HBV and acute SARS-cov-2 infection were potentially eligible. The diagnosis of chronic HBV infection was based on positive testing for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) or HBV DNA during hospitalization and a medical history of chronic HBV infection. Severe patients (meeting one of following criteria: respiratory rate > 30 breaths/min; severe respiratory distress; or SpO2 ≤ 93% on room air; or oxygen index < 300 mmHg) with COVID-19/HBV co-infection were identified. The bias of confounding variables on corticosteroids effects was minimized using multivariable logistic regression model and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) based on propensity score. RESULTS: The prevalence of HBV co-infection in COVID-19 patients was 4.1%. There were 105 patients with severe COVID-19/HBV co-infections (median age 62 years, 57.1% male). Fifty-five patients received corticosteroid treatment and 50 patients did not. In the multivariable analysis, corticosteroid therapy (OR, 6.32, 95% CI 1.17-34.24, P = 0.033) was identified as an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality. With IPTW analysis, corticosteroid treatment was associated with delayed SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA clearance (OR, 2.95, 95% CI 1.63-5.32, P < 0.001), increased risk of 28-day and in-hospital mortality (OR, 4.90, 95% CI 1.68-14.28, P = 0.004; OR, 5.64, 95% CI 1.95-16.30, P = 0.001, respectively), and acute liver injury (OR, 4.50, 95% CI 2.57-7.85, P < 0.001). Methylprednisolone dose per day and cumulative dose in non-survivors were significantly higher than in survivors. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with severe COVID-19/HBV co-infection, corticosteroid treatment may be associated with increased risk of 28-day and in-hospital mortality.

A trial of arbidol hydrochloride in adults with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: To date, there is no effective medicine to treat coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and the antiviral efficacy of arbidol in the treatment for COVID-19 remained equivocal and controversial. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of arbidol tablets in the treatment of COVID-19. METHODS: This was a prospective, open-label, controlled and multicenter investigator-initiated trial involving adult patients with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Patients were stratified 1:2 to either standard-of-care (SOC) or SOC plus arbidol tablets (oral administration of 200 mg per time, three times a day for 14 days). The primary endpoint was negative conversion of SARS-CoV-2 within the first week. The rates and 95% confidential intervals were calculated for each variable. RESULTS: A total of 99 patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were enrolled; 66 were assigned to the SOC plus arbidol tablets group, and 33 to the SOC group. The negative conversion rate of SARS-CoV-2 within the first week in patients receiving arbidol tablets was significantly higher than that of the SOC group (70.3% [45/64] vs. 42.4% [14/33]; difference of conversion rate 27.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.7%-48.1%; P  = 0.008). Compared to those in the SOC group, patients receiving arbidol tablets had a shorter duration of clinical recovery (median 7.0 days vs. 12.0 days; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.877, 95% CI: 1.151-3.060, P = 0.006), symptom of fever (median 3.0 days vs. 12.0 days; HR: 18.990, 95% CI: 5.350-67.410, P < 0.001), as well as hospitalization (median 12.5 days vs. 20.0 days; P < 0.001). Moreover, the addition of arbidol tablets to SOC led to more rapid normalization of declined blood lymphocytes (median 10.0 days vs. 14.5 days; P > 0.05). The most common adverse event in the arbidol tablets group was the elevation of transaminase (5/200, 2.5%), and no one withdrew from the study due to adverse events or disease progression. CONCLUSIONS: SOC plus arbidol tablets significantly increase the negative conversion rate of SARS-CoV-2 within the first week anas, accelerate the recovery of COVID-19 patients. During the treatment with arbidol tablets, we find no significant serious adverse events. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, NCT04260594, www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04260594?term=NCT04260594&draw=2&rank=1.

Different clinical features of children and adults in regional outbreak of Delta COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: This study compared clinical features of the Delta variant of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in children and adults. METHODS: Clinical data included 80 children and 132 adults with the Delta variant of COVID-19, hospitalized in the Affiliated Hospital of Putian College between September and October 2021. The data was analyzed retrospectively. RESULTS: The proportion of mild patients in the children group (50%) was higher than that in the adults group (17.9%). Cough (25%, 20/80) and diarrhea (1.3%, 1/80) symptoms in children group were significantly less frequent. Compared with adults, there was no significant difference in the viral load of SARS-CoV-2 in samples collected by nasopharyngeal swabs. In children, lymphocyte count was higher [1.98 (0.25-4.25) vs 1.20 (0.29-4.27) ×109/L], whereas the interleukin-6 level was lower [5.87 (1.50-61.40) vs 15.15 (1.79-166.30) pg/mL] than that in adults group. Additionally, the incidence of liver injury in children group was lower than that in adults group. There was no significant difference in the incidence of proteinuria (22/75 vs 45/112) between the two groups, but the serum creatinine level in children was lower [42.0 (28.0-73.0) vs 57.0 (32.0-94.0) µmol/L]. CONCLUSION: Compared with adults, children with the Delta variant of COVID-19 have differences in symptoms, clinical classification, inflammatory indices, and liver/kidney function injury. Children's illness is relatively mild. Clinicians should pay attention to their differences and use drugs accurately.

Nebulized exosomes derived from allogenic adipose tissue mesenchymal stromal cells in patients with severe COVID-19: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Existing clinical studies supported the potential efficacy of mesenchymal stromal cells as well as derived exosomes in the treatment of COVID-19. We aimed to explore the safety and efficiency of aerosol inhalation of the exosomes derived from human adipose-derived MSCs (haMSC-Exos) in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: The MEXCOVID trial is a phase 2a single-arm, open-labelled, interventional trial and patients were enrolled in Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China. Eligible 7 patients were assigned to receive the daily dose of haMSCs-Exos (2.0 × 108 nano vesicles) for consecutively 5 days. The primary outcomes included the incidence of prespecified inhalation-associated events and serious adverse events. We also observed the demographic data, clinical characteristics, laboratory results including lymphocyte count, levels of D-dimer and IL-6 as well as chest imaging. RESULTS: Seven severe COVID-19 related pneumonia patients (4 males and 3 females) were enrolled and received nebulized haMSC-Exos. The median age was 57 year (interquartile range (IQR), 43 year to 70 year). The median time from onset of symptoms to hospital admission and administration of nebulized haMSC-Exos was 30 days (IQR, 15 days to 40 days) and 54 d (IQR, 34 d to 69 d), respectively. All COVID-19 patients tolerated the haMSC-Exos nebulization well, with no evidence of prespecified adverse events or clinical instability during the nebulization or during the immediate post-nebulization period. All patients presented a slight increase of serum lymphocyte counts (median as 1.61 × 109/L vs. 1.78 × 109/L). Different degrees of resolution of pulmonary lesions after aerosol inhalation of haMSC-Exos were observed among all patients, more obviously in 4 of 7 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our trial shows that a consecutive 5 days inhalation dose of clinical grade haMSC-Exos up to a total amount of 2.0 × 109 nano vesicles was feasible and well tolerated in seven COVID-19 patients, with no evidence of prespecified adverse events, immediate clinical instability, or dose-relevant toxicity at any of the doses tested. This safety profile is seemingly followed by CT imaging improvement within 7 days. Further trials will have to confirm the long-term safety or efficacy in larger population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: MEXCOVID, NCT04276987.

Identification of a recombinant equine coronavirus in donkey, China.

Equine coronavirus (ECoV) was first identified in the USA and has been previously described in several countries. In order to test the presence of ECoV in China, we collected 51 small intestinal samples from donkey foals with diarrhoea from a donkey farm in Shandong Province, China between August 2020 and April 2021. Two samples tested positive for ECoV and full-length genome sequences were successfully obtained using next-generation sequencing, one of which was further confirmed by Sanger sequencing. The two strains shared 100% sequence identity at the scale of whole genome. Bioinformatics analyses further showed that the two Chinese strains represent a novel genetic variant of ECoV and shared the highest sequence identity of 97.05% with the first identified ECoV strain - NC99. In addition, it may be a recombinant, with the recombination region around the NS2 gene. To our knowledge, this is the first documented report of ECoV in China, highlighting its risk to horse/donkey breeding. In addition, its potential risk to public health also warrants further investigation.

COVID-19 associated EBV reactivation and effects of ganciclovir treatment.

BACKGROUND: Systemic reactivation of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) may occur in novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, the clinical consequences of EBV reactivation remain uncertain. METHODS: In this retrospective study, we screened 1314 patients with confirmed COVID-19 who died or were discharged between January 1, 2020 and March 12, 2020, in Wuhan Infectious Disease Hospital, Wuhan, China. Patients who had complete data for EBV serology and cytomegalovirus (CMV) serology were eligible. Serum levels of viral capsid antigen (VCA)-immunoglobulin G (IgG), Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen-IgG, VCA-IgM, early antigen (EA)-IgG, CMV-IgG, and CMV-IgM were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors. Dynamic changes of laboratory tests and outcomes were compared in patients with and without ganciclovir treatment. We used 1:1 matching based on age, gender, and illness severity to balance baseline characteristics. RESULTS: EBV reactivation was present in 55 of 217 patients. EBV reactivation was associated with age (57.91 [13.19] vs. 50.28 [12.66] years, p < .001), female gender (31 [56%] vs. 60 [37%], p = .02). Patients with EBV reactivation have statistically nonsignificant higher mortality rate (12 [22%] vs. 18 [11%], p = .08). EA-IgG levels were significantly higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors (median difference: -0.00005, 95% confidence interval, CI [-3.10, 0.00], p = .05). As compared to patients with COVID-19 who did not receive ganciclovir therapy, ganciclovir-treated patients had improved survival rate (0.98, 95% CI [0.95, 1.00] vs. 0.88, 95% CI [0.81, 0.95], p = .01). Hemoglobin (p < .001) and prealbumin (p = .02) levels were significantly higher in ganciclovir-treated patients. CONCLUSION: A high proportion of COVID-19 patients had EBV reactivation that may be associated with an increased risk of death. Whether treatment with ganciclovir may decrease the mortality of COVID-19 patients complicated with EBV reactivation warrants to be addressed in a placebo-controlled randomized trial in the future.

Efficacy of Thymosin Alpha 1 in the Treatment of COVID-19: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Background: Thymosin alpha 1 (Tα1) is widely used to treat patients with COVID-19 in China; however, its efficacy remains unclear. This study aimed to explore the efficacy of Tα1 as a COVID-19 therapy. Methods: We performed a multicenter cohort study in five tertiary hospitals in the Hubei province of China between December 2019 and March 2020. The patient non-recovery rate was used as the primary outcome. Results: All crude outcomes, including non-recovery rate (65/306 vs. 290/1,976, p = 0.003), in-hospital mortality rate (62/306 vs. 271/1,976, p = 0.003), intubation rate (31/306 vs. 106/1,976, p = 0.001), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) incidence (104/306 vs. 499/1,976, p = 0.001), acute kidney injury (AKI) incidence (26/306 vs. 66/1,976, p < 0.001), and length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay (14.9 ± 12.7 vs. 8.7 ± 8.2 days, p < 0.001), were significantly higher in the Tα1 treatment group. After adjusting for confounding factors, Tα1 use was found to be significantly associated with a higher non-recovery rate than non-Tα1 use (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.1, p = 0.028). An increased risk of non-recovery rate associated with Tα1 use was observed in the patient subgroups with maximum sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores ≥2 (OR 2.0, 95%CI 1.4-2.9, p = 0.024), a record of ICU admission (OR 5.4, 95%CI 2.1-14.0, p < 0.001), and lower PaO2/FiO2 values (OR 1.9, 95%CI 1.1-3.4, p = 0.046). Furthermore, later initiation of Tα1 use was associated with a higher non-recovery rate. Conclusion: Tα1 use in COVID-19 patients was associated with an increased non-recovery rate, especially in those with greater disease severity.

Risk factors for secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis in severe coronavirus disease 2019 adult patients.

BACKGROUND: Secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (sHLH) is a life-threatening hyperinflammatory event and a fatal complication of viral infections. Whether sHLH may also be observed in patients with a cytokine storm induced by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is still uncertain. We aimed to determine the incidence of sHLH in severe COVID-19 patients and evaluate the underlying risk factors. METHOD: Four hundred fifteen severe COVID-19 adult patients were retrospectively assessed for hemophagocytosis score (HScore). A subset of 7 patients were unable to be conclusively scored due to insufficient patient data. RESULTS: In 408 patients, 41 (10.04%) had an HScore ≥169 and were characterized as "suspected sHLH positive". Compared with patients below a HScore threshold of 98, the suspected sHLH positive group had higher D-dimer, total bilirubin, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, triglycerides, ferritin, interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, lactate dehydrogenase, creatine kinase isoenzyme, troponin, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, while leukocyte, hemoglobin, platelets, lymphocyte, fibrinogen, pre-albumin, albumin levels were significantly lower (all P < 0.05). Multivariable logistic regression revealed that high ferritin (>1922.58 ng/mL), low platelets (<101 × 109/L) and high triglycerides (>2.28 mmol/L) were independent risk factors for suspected sHLH in COVID-19 patients. Importantly, COVID-19 patients that were suspected sHLH positive had significantly more multi-organ failure. Additionally, a high HScore (>98) was an independent predictor for mortality in COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: HScore should be measured as a prognostic biomarker in COVID-19 patients. In particular, it is important that HScore is assessed in patients with high ferritin, triglycerides and low platelets to improve the detection of suspected sHLH.

Identification and validation of prognostic factors in patients with COVID-19: A retrospective study based on artificial intelligence algorithms.

Background: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing global pandemic with high mortality. Although several studies have reported different risk factors for mortality in patients based on traditional analytics, few studies have used artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. This study investigated prognostic factors for COVID-19 patients using AI methods. Methods: COVID-19 patients who were admitted in Wuhan Infectious Diseases Hospital from December 29, 2019 to March 2, 2020 were included. The whole cohort was randomly divided into training and testing sets at a 6:4 ratio. Demographic and clinical data were analyzed to identify predictors of mortality using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and LASSO-based artificial neural network (ANN) models. The predictive performance of the models was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: A total of 1145 patients (610 male, 53.3%) were included in the study. Of the 1145 patients, 704 were assigned to the training set and 441 were assigned to the testing set. The median age of the patients was 57 years (range: 47-66 years). Severity of illness, age, platelet count, leukocyte count, prealbumin, C-reactive protein (CRP), total bilirubin, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score were identified as independent prognostic factors for mortality. Incorporating these nine factors into the LASSO regression model yielded a correct classification rate of 0.98, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.980 and 0.990 in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. Incorporating the same factors into the LASSO-based ANN model yielded a correct classification rate of 0.990, with an AUC of 0.980 in both the training and testing cohorts. Conclusions: Both the LASSO regression and LASSO-based ANN model accurately predicted the clinical outcome of patients with COVID-19. Severity of illness, age, platelet count, leukocyte count, prealbumin, CRP, total bilirubin, APACHE II score, and SOFA score were identified as prognostic factors for mortality in patients with COVID-19.

Liver Chemistries in Patients With COVID-19 Who Were Discharged Alive or Died: A Meta-analysis.

Although abnormal liver chemistries are linked to a higher risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related death, liver manifestations may be diverse and even confusing. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis of published liver manifestations and described the liver damage in patients with COVID-19 who died or discharged alive. We searched PubMed, Google Scholar, medRxiv, bioRxiv, the Cochrane Library, Embase, and three Chinese electronic databases through April 22, 2020. We analyzed pooled data on liver chemistries stratified by the main clinical outcome of COVID-19, using a fixed or random-effects model. In our meta-analysis of 19 studies, which included a total of 4,103 patients, the pooled mean alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase levels were, respectively, 31.7 IU/L and 51.0 IU/L in the patients with COVID-19 who died and 27.7 IU/L and 32.9 IU/L in those discharged alive (both P < 0.0001). Compared with the patients discharged alive, those who died tended to have lower albumin levels but longer prothrombin time and higher international normalized ratio. Conclusion: In this meta-analysis, according to the main clinical outcome of COVID-19, we comprehensively describe three patterns of liver impairment related to COVID-19: hepatocellular injury, cholestasis, and hepatocellular disfunction. The patients who died from COVID-19 tended to have different liver chemistries from those discharged alive. Special caution should be given to the patients with a relatively higher index of liver chemistries.

Corticosteroid treatment in severe COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome.

BACKGROUNDCorticosteroids are widely used in patients with COVID 19, although their benefit-to-risk ratio remains controversial.METHODSPatients with severe COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were included from December 29, 2019 to March 16, 2020 in 5 tertiary Chinese hospitals. Cox proportional hazards and competing risks analyses were conducted to analyze the impact of corticosteroids on mortality and SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance, respectively. We performed a propensity score (PS) matching analysis to control confounding factors.RESULTSOf 774 eligible patients, 409 patients received corticosteroids, with a median time from hospitalization to starting corticosteroids of 1.0 day (IQR 0.0-3.0 days) . As compared with usual care, treatment with corticosteroids was associated with increased rate of myocardial (15.6% vs. 10.4%, P = 0.041) and liver injury (18.3% vs. 9.9%, P = 0.001), of shock (22.0% vs. 12.6%, P < 0.001), of need for mechanical ventilation (38.1% vs. 19.5%, P < 0.001), and increased rate of 28-day all-cause mortality (44.3% vs. 31.0%, P < 0.001). After PS matching, corticosteroid therapy was associated with 28-day mortality (adjusted HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.01-2.13, P = 0.045). High dose (>200 mg) and early initiation (≤3 days from hospitalization) of corticosteroid therapy were associated with a higher 28-day mortality rate. Corticosteroid use was also associated with a delay in SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus RNA clearance in the competing risk analysis (subhazard ratio 1.59, 95% CI 1.17-2.15, P = 0.003).CONCLUSIONAdministration of corticosteroids in severe COVID-19-related ARDS is associated with increased 28-day mortality and delayed SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus RNA clearance after adjustment for time-varying confounders.FUNDINGNone.

Community Resilience Governance on Public Health Crisis in China.

The COVID-19 pandemic has immensely affected economic and social order in not only China but the entire world, seriously threatening peoples' lives and property. In China's fight against COVID-19, the community is at the front line of joint prevention and control of the disease, yet it faces the problem of insufficient resilience. We explored the manifestations and formation mechanism of the problem of insufficient resilience in community public health crisis governance, based on the complex adaptive system theory, which emphasizes interaction among subjects and between subjects and the environment to improve the adaptability to the environment. Questionnaires and in-depth interviews were conducted in 28 counties (districts) of 14 cities of 7 provinces in China; 2345 questionnaires and 71 interview data were collected, and we conducted descriptive statistical analysis on questionnaire data. It is found that some communities faced insufficient resilience problems such as "simply isolating households and communities", "blindly setting limits", "layer-by-layer law", and "rejecting and repelling all individuals from or even related to Hubei". These problems are due to the fact that the community have a non-interactive relationship, which is a one-dimensional linear governance model to some extent. The legal content of the building of a "comprehensive disaster-reduction demonstration community" implemented by the Chinese government is compelled to stay at the level of system design to some extent, with its existence playing an ornamental role but lacking a substantial one. In this regard, this study suggests that a resilient governance model of community pluralistic cooperation be established based on the theoretical framework of complex adaptive system. This model is designed to increase the resilience of community public health crisis governance. The authoritative role of central and local policies is expected to be truly developed and played in dealing with the grassroots community public health crisis.

WLAN-Log-Based Superspreader Detection in the COVID-19 Pandemic (preprint)

Identifying "superspreaders" of disease is a pressing concern for society during pandemics such as COVID-19. Superspreaders represent a group of people who have much more social contacts than others. The widespread deployment of WLAN infrastructure enables non-invasive contact tracing via people's ubiquitous mobile devices. This technology offers promise for detecting superspreaders. In this paper, we propose a general framework for WLAN-log-based superspreader detection. In our framework, we first use WLAN logs to construct contact graphs by jointly considering human symmetric and asymmetric interactions. Next, we adopt three vertex centrality measurements over the contact graphs to generate three groups of superspreader candidates. Finally, we leverage SEIR simulation to determine groups of superspreaders among these candidates, who are the most critical individuals for the spread of disease based on the simulation results. We have implemented our framework and evaluate it over a WLAN dataset with 41 million log entries from a large-scale university. Our evaluation shows superspreaders exist on university campuses. They change over the first few weeks of a semester, but stabilize throughout the rest of the term. The data also demonstrate that both symmetric and asymmetric contact tracing can discover superspreaders, but the latter performs better with daily contact graphs. Further, the evaluation shows no consistent differences among three vertex centrality measures for long-term (i.e., weekly) contact graphs, which necessitates the inclusion of SEIR simulation in our framework. We believe our proposed framework and these results may provide timely guidance for public health administrators regarding effective testing, intervention, and vaccination policies.

The mNCP-SPI Score Predicting Risk of Severe COVID-19 among Mild-Pneumonia Patients on Admission.

PURPOSE: To predict the risk of developing severe pneumonia among mild novel coronavirus pneumonia (mNCP) patients on admission. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at three hospitals in Shanghai and Wuhan from January 2020 to February 2020. Real-time polymerasechain-reaction assays were used to detect COVID-19. A total of 529 patients diagnosed with NCP were recruited from three hospitals and classified by four severity types during hospitalization following the standards of the Chinese Diagnosis and Treatment of Pneumonia Caused by New Coronavirus Infection (eighth version). Patients were excluded if admitted by ICU on admission (n=92, on a general ward while meeting the condition of severe or critical type on admission (n=25), or there was insufficient clinical information (n=64). In sum, 348 patients with mNCP were finally included, and 68 developed severe pneumonia. RESULTS: mNCP severity prognostic index values were calculated based on multivariate logistic regression: history of diabetes (OR 2.064, 95% CI 1.010-4.683; p=0.043), time from symptom onset to admission ≥7 days (OR 1.945, 95% CI 1.054-3.587; p=0.033), lymphocyte count ≤0.8 (OR 1.816, 95% CI 1.008-3.274; p=0.047), myoglobin ≥90 mg/L (OR 2.496, 95% CI 1.235-5.047; p=0.011), and D-dimer ≥0.5 mg/L (OR 2.740, 95% CI 1.395-5.380; p=0.003). This model showed a c-statistics of 0.747, with sensitivity and specificity 0.764 and 0.644, respectively, under cutoff of 165. CONCLUSION: We designed a clinical predictive tool for risk of severe pneumonia among mNCP patients to provided guidance for medicines. Further studies are required for external validation.

Association of sex with clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients: A retrospective analysis of 1190 cases.

BACKGROUND: The outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been a pandemic. The objective of our study was to explore the association between sex and clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Detailed clinical data including clinical characteristics, laboratory tests, imaging features and treatments of 1190 cases of adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 were retrospectively analyzed. Associations between sex and clinical outcomes were identified by multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: There were 635 (53.4%) male and 555 (46.6%) female patients in this study. Higher rates of acute kidney injury (5.5% vs. 2.9%, p = 0.026), acute cardiac injury (9.1% vs. 4.3%, p = 0.001), and disseminated intravascular coagulation (2.5% vs. 0.7%, P = 0.024) were observed in males. Compared with female patients, male patients with COVID-19 had a higher inhospital mortality rate (15.7% vs. 10.3%, p = 0.005). However, Cox regression analysis showed that sex did not influence inhospital mortality of COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Male sex was associated with a worse prognosis of COVID-19, but it seems not to be an independent prognostic factor.

Clinical outcomes of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a large cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Since December 2019, an outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) initially emerged in Wuhan, China, and has spread worldwide now. Clinical features of patients with COVID-19 have been described. However, risk factors leading to in-hospital deterioration and poor prognosis in COVID-19 patients with severe disease have not been well identified. METHODS: In this retrospective, single-center cohort study, 1190 adult inpatients (≥ 18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and determined outcomes (discharged or died) were included from Wuhan Infectious Disease Hospital from December 29, 2019 to February 28, 2020. The final follow-up date was March 2, 2020. Clinical data including characteristics, laboratory and imaging information as well as treatments were extracted from electronic medical records and compared. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to explore the potential predictors associated with in-hospital deterioration and death. RESULTS: 1190 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were included. Their median age was 57 years (interquartile range 47-67 years). Two hundred and sixty-one patients (22%) developed a severe illness after admission. Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated that higher SOFA score (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.22-1.43, per score increase, p < 0.001 for deterioration and OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.11-1.53, per score increase, p = 0.001 for death), lymphocytopenia (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.13-2.89 p = 0.013 for deterioration; OR 4.44, 95% CI 1.26-15.87, p = 0.021 for death) on admission were independent risk factors for in-hospital deterioration from not severe to severe disease and for death in severe patients. On admission D-dimer greater than 1 µg/L (OR 3.28, 95% CI 1.19-9.04, p = 0.021), leukocytopenia (OR 5.10, 95% CI 1.25-20.78), thrombocytopenia (OR 8.37, 95% CI 2.04-34.44) and history of diabetes (OR 11.16, 95% CI 1.87-66.57, p = 0.008) were also associated with higher risks of in-hospital death in severe COVID-19 patients. Shorter time interval from illness onset to non-invasive mechanical ventilation in the survivors with severe disease was observed compared with non-survivors (10.5 days, IQR 9.25-11.0 vs. 16.0 days, IQR 11.0-19.0 days, p = 0.030). Treatment with glucocorticoids increased the risk of progression from not severe to severe disease (OR 3.79, 95% CI 2.39-6.01, p < 0.001). Administration of antiviral drugs especially oseltamivir or ganciclovir is associated with a decreased risk of death in severe patients (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05-0.64, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: High SOFA score and lymphocytopenia on admission could predict that not severe patients would develop severe disease in-hospital. On admission elevated D-dimer, leukocytopenia, thrombocytopenia and diabetes were independent risk factors of in-hospital death in severe patients with COVID-19. Administration of oseltamivir or ganciclovir might be beneficial for reducing mortality in severe patients.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 infections among diabetics: A retrospective and multicenter study in China.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in December 2019 and has spread globally. Diabetics are at increased risk of infections caused by a variety of pathogens including viruses. The present research aims to describe clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with diabetes. METHODS: A retrospective multicenter study of COVID-19 patients with diabetes was conducted in four hospitals in Wuhan, Shanghai, and Anhui Province. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction or next-generation sequencing was carried out to confirm the existence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 from respiratory specimens. RESULTS: A total of 54 diabetics (10.36%) were recruited from among 521 COVID-19 patients, with a median age of 63 (interquartile range, 52-70) years. Among them, 51 had been previously diagnosed with diabetes and 3 had been newly diagnosed based on glycosylated hemoglobin over 6.5%. For COVID-19, 47 of the 54 patients had an exposure history. Fever (47/54, 87.04%), dry cough (36/54, 66.67%), and expectoration (21/53, 39.62%) were among the top three symptoms. Lung infiltration was bilateral (46/52, 88.46%) and multilobe (47/52, 90.38%), and ground-glass opacity (36/37, 97.30%) was the most common pattern in radiological images. Moreover, COVID-19 patients with diabetes were prone to be classified as severe or critical cases (46.30%, 25/54) and had complications such as acute lung injury, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and acute kidney injury. The proportions of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths among the COVID-19 diabetics were 14.81% (8/54) and 12.96% (7/54), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: With older age, diabetics diagnosed as having COVID-19 were prone to develop into severe cases and exhibited a high rate of ICU admission and mortality.

ACOUSTIC-TURF: Acoustic-based Privacy-Preserving COVID-19 Contact Tracing (preprint)

In this paper, we propose a new privacy-preserving, automated contact tracing system, ACOUSTIC-TURF, to fight COVID-19 using acoustic signals sent from ubiquitous mobile devices. At a high level, ACOUSTIC-TURF adaptively broadcasts inaudible ultrasonic signals with randomly generated IDs in the vicinity. Simultaneously, the system receives other ultrasonic signals sent from nearby (e.g., 6 feet) users. In such a system, individual user IDs are not disclosed to others and the system can accurately detect encounters in physical proximity with 6-foot granularity. We have implemented a prototype of ACOUSTIC-TURF on Android and evaluated its performance in terms of acoustic-signal-based encounter detection accuracy and power consumption at different ranges and under various occlusion scenarios. Experimental results show that ACOUSTIC-TURF can detect multiple contacts within a 6-foot range for mobile phones placed in pockets and outside pockets. Furthermore, our acoustic-signal-based system achieves greater precision than wireless-signal-based approaches when contact tracing is performed through walls. ACOUSTIC-TURF correctly determines that people on opposite sides of a wall are not in contact with one another, whereas the Bluetooth-based approaches detect nonexistent contacts among them.

A Trial of Lopinavir-Ritonavir in Adults Hospitalized with Severe Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: No therapeutics have yet been proven effective for the treatment of severe illness caused by SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, controlled, open-label trial involving hospitalized adult patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, which causes the respiratory illness Covid-19, and an oxygen saturation (Sao2) of 94% or less while they were breathing ambient air or a ratio of the partial pressure of oxygen (Pao2) to the fraction of inspired oxygen (Fio2) of less than 300 mm Hg. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either lopinavir-ritonavir (400 mg and 100 mg, respectively) twice a day for 14 days, in addition to standard care, or standard care alone. The primary end point was the time to clinical improvement, defined as the time from randomization to either an improvement of two points on a seven-category ordinal scale or discharge from the hospital, whichever came first. RESULTS: A total of 199 patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection underwent randomization; 99 were assigned to the lopinavir-ritonavir group, and 100 to the standard-care group. Treatment with lopinavir-ritonavir was not associated with a difference from standard care in the time to clinical improvement (hazard ratio for clinical improvement, 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.95 to 1.80). Mortality at 28 days was similar in the lopinavir-ritonavir group and the standard-care group (19.2% vs. 25.0%; difference, -5.8 percentage points; 95% CI, -17.3 to 5.7). The percentages of patients with detectable viral RNA at various time points were similar. In a modified intention-to-treat analysis, lopinavir-ritonavir led to a median time to clinical improvement that was shorter by 1 day than that observed with standard care (hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.91). Gastrointestinal adverse events were more common in the lopinavir-ritonavir group, but serious adverse events were more common in the standard-care group. Lopinavir-ritonavir treatment was stopped early in 13 patients (13.8%) because of adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: In hospitalized adult patients with severe Covid-19, no benefit was observed with lopinavir-ritonavir treatment beyond standard care. Future trials in patients with severe illness may help to confirm or exclude the possibility of a treatment benefit. (Funded by Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development and others; Chinese Clinical Trial Register number, ChiCTR2000029308.).